French legislative: the left gathered in front of Macron’s coalition, according to estimates

The united left (Nupes) would narrowly win against the coalition supporting Macron (Together), according to estimates. The National Rally is in 3rd place, ahead of Les Républicains.

Lon the united left (25% to 26.2%) would finish ahead of President Macron’s camp (25% to 25.8%) in the first round of the legislative elections on Sunday, against a backdrop of record abstention (52.1% to 52, 8%), thus opening the game of the second round in a week, according to the latest estimates.

The first projections of the 577 seats give an advantage to the outgoing majority united under the label Ensemble!, with a range of 260 to 300 seats, ahead of the left (LFI, PCF, PS and EELV) united under the Nupes banner (150 to 208), according to the Harris Institute, and a range of 275 to 310 for Together! and 190 to 210 for Nupes, according to Ifop-Fiducial.

But they do not settle two major questions: will the head of state manage to retain his absolute majority in the National Assembly? And will the left find sufficient reserves of votes to send, as it hopes, the rebellious Jean-Luc Mélenchon to Matignon?

As expected, the National Rally candidates (18.5% to 19.8%) failed to capitalize on the momentum of Marine Le Pen in the presidential election, who had garnered more than 40% of the votes in the second round. Confined to eight elected in 2017, the contingent of RN deputies should however be much larger this time, and still count in its ranks Ms. Le Pen, given largely in the lead in her constituency of Pas-de-Calais (around 55%) .

Conversely, in the wake of the heavy fall of its presidential candidate Valérie Pécresse, LR (11.6% to 14%) should lose its place as the leading opposition group in the National Assembly.

Record abstention

The key to the second round will once again lie in the participation, historically low this Sunday for a first round of legislative elections, between 47 and 47.5% according to the institutes, and affecting young people and the working classes in priority.

Since 1993, disinterest in these elections has steadily increased, a trend that accelerated with the introduction of the five-year term and the alignment of the presidential and legislative elections in 2002. Consequence: as in 2017 (48, 7% participation), a majority of French people of voting age decided to shun the ballot box.

However, the various parties involved have continued to send calls for mobilization and have heavily insisted on the issues, six weeks after seeing Emmanuel Macron obtain a second term at the Elysée.

For the Head of State, who called on the French to give him “a strong and clear majority”, it is a question of being able to have the many reforms promised in his program approved, starting with that of pensions. which is due to come into effect in one year.

The executive has also insisted in recent weeks on its intention to vote in July on a set of measures for purchasing power, in order to counter inflation which is straining household budgets and weighing on business accounts.

As expected, the score of the Macronist candidates is in decline compared to the wave of 2017, when La République en Marche and Modem won more than 32% in the first round before obtaining nearly 350 deputies in the second. It remains to be seen whether this decline will result in a loss of the absolute majority (289 deputies) and therefore the obligation to deal with other groups to have the texts of the executive adopted.

Revenge of the left

Another center of attention, the fate of the 15 members of the government involved, starting with Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne in the running in Calvados and credited with 33% to 36.5% according to the polls. In the event of defeat, they will have to resign, in accordance with an unwritten rule but already applied in 2017 by Mr. Macron.

Theoretically the most in danger, the Secretary of State for the Sea Justine Benin (MoDem) is in a favorable ballot against the candidate Nupes Christian Baptiste in Guadeloupe, where we voted on Saturday.

On the Nupes side, there is little hope of imposing a government of cohabitation on Mr. Macron, as the plural left had succeeded in 1997 with Lionel Jospin. While Mr. Mélenchon had urged the French to make these elections a “third round” of the presidential election, the left should still establish itself as the main opposition bloc at the Palais-Bourbon.

A form of tactical half-victory when on the other side of the hemicycle, the Republicans will count their survivors among the hundred outgoing, hoping to make the most of their local roots.

Among the hot spots monitored on Sunday evening are the results in the 4th district of Var where the far-right polemicist Eric Zemmour competes, who thus intends to complete his landing in politics after the presidential election.

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