Legislative in France: the left of the Nupes and the camp of Macron neck and neck, according to first estimates

The outgoing presidential majority Together! and the left-wing Nupes alliance are neck and neck on Sunday in the first round of legislative elections with around 25% of the vote, according to estimates by five pollsters.

The confederation which supports President Emmanuel Macron would obtain between 25 and 25.8% of the vote, ahead of the coalition led by the rebellious Jean-Luc Mélenchon (25 to 26.2%). The two formations are ahead of the National Rally 18.5-19.7% of the vote, followed by the Republicans (11.1-14%), according to the Ipsos / Sopra Steria institutes for FranceTV / RadioFrance / France24 / RFI / LCP / MCD , Ifop for TF1/LCI, Harris for M6/RTL and OpinionWay for CNews/Europe1 and Elabe for BFMTV/LEXPRESS/RMC.

Advantage to the outgoing presidential majority

The first projections of the 577 seats give an advantage to the outgoing majority united under the label Ensemble!, with a range of 260 to 300 seats, ahead of the left (LFI, PCF, PS and EELV) united under the Nupes banner (150 to 208), according to the Harris Institute, and a range of 275 to 310 for Together! and 190 to 210 for Nupes, according to Ifop-Fiducial.

As expected, the National Rally candidates (18.5% to 19.8%) failed to capitalize on the momentum of Marine Le Pen in the presidential election, who had garnered more than 40% of the votes in the second round. Confined to eight elected in 2017, the contingent of RN deputies should however be much larger this time, and still count in its ranks Ms. Le Pen, given largely in the lead in her constituency of Pas-de-Calais (around 55%) .

Conversely, in the wake of the heavy fall of its presidential candidate Valérie Pécresse, LR (11.6% to 14%) should lose its place as the leading opposition group in the National Assembly.

The key to the second round will once again lie in the participation, historically low this Sunday for a first round of legislative elections, between 47 and 47.5% according to the institutes, and affecting young people and the working classes in priority.

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